Category Archives: Transaction Analysis

Travis Shaw, Red Sox Starting Third Basemen

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It was announced today that Travis Shaw will enter the season as the Boston Red Sox’s starting third basemen sending Pablo Sandoval to back-up 3B/1B/pinch-hitting role. So what, you may ask, are the odds of this move actually sticking? Is Shaw a legitimate starter and can he prevail against major league pitching? What is the opportunity cost of not playing Sandoval?

Well, first and foremost, the number one reason Shaw was selected over Sandoval was for his defensive skills. Shaw came up as a first basemen and was considered plus for the position. Shaw played third base in college and has a good glove and throwing arm, but a somewhat limited range which was of course the reason he moved to first base as a professional. Be that as it may, he still has the greater range compared to Sandoval who has ranked as one of the worst defensive third basemen in baseball.

Offensively, Sandoval at only 29 years of age already appears to be post peak. The switch-hitter remains an aggressive, contact-oriented hitter who has struck out around 13% of the time over his career, but who has also swung well above the league average on balls outside the strike zone throughout his career. Of concern, last year was Sandoval’s increasing tendency towards becoming a ground ball hitter which may place a cap on his power production and ability to hit for average. The groundball rate of nearly 50% represents a substantial jump from the previous season and so could be an outlier, but it remains to be seen whether or not it is the beginning of an unwelcome trend. In other words, despite his substantial contract, having the Red Sox play a sub-par defensive 3B with limited power and on-base skills that may be more of a detriment to the team than a positive seems reason enough to at least give another player a chance.

Enter Travis Shaw. As I have mentioned, while he is an adequate defender at third, he still represents a substantial upgrade at the position. On the hitting side of things, Shaw has demonstrated greater power with 18 home runs combined between Triple-A and the Majors. The lefty is a fly-ball hitter who has consistently demonstrated average power, hitting 19 homers in 2012 followed by two straight seasons of twenty-one home run campaigns in 2013 and 2014. Shaw’s power production has been considered average and not the outstanding variety typically coveted for starting first basemen in the majors, but if he can handle third base over the course of the season, his power would profile far better there.

Earlier in his career, Shaw demonstrated above-average control of the strike zone but since reaching AAA has become less passive with walk rates dropping from around 14% to the 8% mark and just 7.3% of his time in the majors last year. Not surprisingly his strikeout rates have gone up correspondingly though they translated well to the majors and have not spiked upwards further though it remains to be seen what they do over a larger sample.

The overall combination of power and plate discipline skill suggests Shaw could be an average regular, capable of hitting in the .250s to .270s with upper-teens to low-twenties homerun power. In other words, if he can achieve that level while playing superior defense to Sandoval he should, in theory, be able to hold off the competition. Any ability on Shaw’s part to reassert some control of the strike zone would only help to further entrench him and reduce the chances of him being a streak hitter. At the moment, Shaw’s skill set does suggest he could endure some peaks and valleys which could potentially reopen the door for the well-paid Sandoval. Fortunately, in most leagues, up until this announcement Shaw was available at a discount or in reserve rounds, making the risk of investment low while providing plenty a good amount of room for possible profit. Considering I selected him as  my first pick in the reserve round of AL Tout Wars as a result of purchasing A.J. Reed at auction, I certainly hope so!

What’s a Joey Rickard?

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Joey Rickard was on virtually no one’s radar heading into spring training. A quick scan of just about every prominent prospect publication on the market not only doesn’t list the former Devil Ray amongst the top prospects but do not even mention him on any lists or are any prospect depth charts. Still, the Orioles selected him in this past off-season’s Rule-5 draft as a potential back-up, a role that seemed to be consistent with his ceiling at the time. The former ninth-round pick certainly has some attractive skills, particularly for that role, as a solid defender at all three outfield positions.  Offensively, Rickard enjoys having plus speed and is coming off of a twenty-four stolen base season amongst three different levels of minor league play. The righty also possesses a fundamentally sound approach at the plate, walking more often than he struck out between A+ and AA ball last season. That approach fell somewhat apart as he made contact just 81% of the time in 104 Triple-A plate appearances while watching his walk rate slip to under 10%. Tools-wise, Rickard’s most significant shortcoming in his game is a lack of power. He managed just two home runs last year and has hit no more than eight in any previous single minor league season. Fortunately, Rickard has at least shown modest gap power, hitting doubles and triples at solid rates in the minors.

As of this writing, it appears Rickard has forced the Orioles hand and will open 2016 as their starting left fielder and will likely force them to rework Korean import, Hyun-Soo Kim’s contract to the point of either requesting he go to the minors or have his contract voided altogether (with compensation of course).

As fantasy players, with stolen bases in such high demand, it forces our hand too. In order to obtain him, if you’ve already drafted that is, AL-only leaguers will have to commit a fairly significant amount of FAAB in order to claim him. Such a bid comes with substantial risk. Rickard is clearly no sure thing to stick particularly once scouting reports on him circulate about the league.

This is still the same player who managed a .243/.337/.296 line in AA as recently as 2014 and has also, at times, showed signs of having difficulties against right-handed pitching. Rickard may end up starting for much of 2016 but he still probably profiles as a fourth or fifth outfielder beyond this year.

So often we see the next great speedster all set to make his debut only to be overpowered by major league pitchers. Much of it can be tied to a lack of translation of their contact skills and/or overall plate discipline fail to the Majors. Rickard is in that same boat and the odds are stacked against him. I wish him luck but remain skeptical for now.

A Word About Jesus Montero

If Montero could catch, we wouldn’t be talking about him being put on waivers, claimed on waivers, and then the Blue Jays most likely trying to slip him through waivers to get to the minors. Instead, we’d be probably be analyzing the righty from the standpoint of a player entering his fifth season as a full-time player. That is a testament to his bat in that our expectations of production from catchers are far more forgiving and when compared to other current backstops, he fits in nicely and would be more coveted than quite a few.

Coming up through the minors Montero’s raw power and original position created quite a bit of hype. As a right-handed hitter with his power potential who did not strikeout overly much and who walked a fairly average amount, it looked like Montero had a bat that would not only stick, but that should translate fairly quickly to the Majors. Unfortunately, Montero did not advance defensively as planned and became one of a plethora of right-handed first basemen/designated hitter types. Still, the Yankees extracted Michael Pineda from the Mariners from him and the Mariners indeed gave him a shot.

Looking back at 2012, while Montero certainly did not dominate, for a 22-year old playing full time in the majors he did actually translate most of his minor league skills fairly well when considering most players his age were still in AAA, batting .260/.290/.386 with fifteen homers isn’t all that terrible. Again, were he a catcher of any skill, it might have been heralded as quite a success to not only handle a major league staff but to show some offensive potential. Regardless of position, 2012 looked like something Montero could build off. Instead, he struggled early in 2013 and ended up spending a lot of time out of action. By 2014 he was already out of the Mariner’s plans. While Montero has yet to fulfill his promise and has not dominated at any minor league level, he is still coming off of two solid AAA seasons. At 26 the move to journeyman AAA roster filler has probably begun in earnest. There is a chance he could push his way into a platoon at first base depending upon the volatility of Chris Colabello, but it’s likely the Jays are not the best fit for him and that Toronto could end up being one of a few pit-stops in 2016.

Desmond to Texas

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So free agents to be coming off a sub-par season now have a lesson object in Ian Desmond. If you receive a qualifying offer, take it. Teams won’t want to pay a premium for a player plus lose a pick on a player with question marks. The result, as we already know, is Desmond’s less than qualifying offer signing by the Texas Rangers.

Contracts aside, Ian Desmond’s season really was not radically different from his 2014 campaign. What may have looked like an outlier in the strikeout department after 2014 may now be Desmond’s baseline with him having gone from a low-twenty-percent strikeout player to one who is now approaching the 30% mark. Obviously maintain that high a strikeout rate places a lower ceiling on his batting average and on-base percentage. A .250/.315 level is that ceiling barring a shift back towards his pre-2014 performance levels`.

Another disturbing trend with Desmond’s game has been a three-year jump in groundballs by precisely 10% from 2013 to over 50% of the time each of the past two seasons. His fly ball rates have trended downwards the past four years though to be fair, have always ranged in the low to mid-30% range. The move to Arlington may be one contributing factor that arrests any further erosion of his home run totals, but it is not guaranteed.

Desmond also witnessed a drop-off in stolen bases and his overall speed scores to the lowest of his career. A return to the 20-plus stolen base level on the wrong side of thirty is far from a given.

Demond did enjoy a much better second half than the first half but actually did so while increasing his ground ball rates despite posting huge home run on fly ball numbers in the months of July and August while actually striking out more frequently than he had earlier in the season.

The righty will, as a result of having signed with a club with a deep infield, have to man a new position in left field. Ostensibly he’ll also receive some playing time at shortstop and perhaps even second base on days off or should injuries occur, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll get enough playing time to continue to qualify as a middle infielder past 2016. Things will also get further complicated once Josh Hamilton returns from the disabled list around the first of May. Hamilton was originally slated to be the everyday left fielder but now will have to compete with not only Desmond, but Mitch Moreland, and Prince Fielder for playing time as well. It remains to be seen who will be the playing time loser in that equation.

This all said, Ian Desmond still should be worth a double digit bid in AL-only leagues on draft day. He is still a player with 15-15 homerun and stolen base tools, if not 20-20 tools who will qualify at shortstop for at least this coming season. Just be wary that there may be some definite high and low points over that time.