Category Archives: Expert League

AL Tout Wars 2018 Draft Recap

This past weekend I made my 18th annual pilgrimage to participate in Tout Wars. The word pilgrimage seems appropriate as attending a fantasy baseball auction in person is probably as close as I often get to have a religious calling.

This year the experience was bittersweet due to the untimely passing of Steve Moyer. My first Tout Wars experience took place in his basement in Bethlehem, PA in March 2001. That event helped solidify many friendships which continue to the present day. I remember our dinner conversation fondly, where a group of us discussed Steve’s local extremely deep dynasty league. As many noted it was a strange experience not having Steve there going through his sheets of $1 endgame players and not having him correcting me on my butchery of player name pronunciations. I’ll miss his dry wit and the no bullshit way he always expressed himself. The Steve Moyer Memorial Home Run is being administered by Peter Kreutzer and Jeff Erickson to support his children.

This year’s event was held at a new venue – Richmond County Bank Ballpark, home of the New York Penn League (Rookie Ball) New York Yankees affiliate.

Pre-Draft Strategy:  After several years of moving towards a more-balanced hitting/pitching split, I opted to go back to my old ways with a more hitter heavy split of 195/65. On the pitching side of things, I opted to move away from my usual “ace anchor” approach and decided to spend my money on starters with upside in the middle teens to single digits range and to add a single closer. For the hitters, I focused mostly on value and used my spreadsheet to target each slot with a $ amount that I could easily shuffle on the fly as I purchased players.  I decided to try one new thing this year. In addition to my usual budgeting spreadsheet and tier-pricing sheet, I added a third party online software which I felt made it easy to look up players and track draft spending.

Draft Day: (Draft Day rosters can be found here.) So how’d it go? Well, let’s start with the positives. I drafted the pitching staff I set out to draft, though was subject to many jokes about its youth throughout its acquisition. I acquired Michael Fulmer for his “veteran presence”.  

In order of purchase: (Value in parentheses)
Jose Berrios $15
A.J. Puk $2
Dylan Bundy $11
Lucas Giolito $6
Michael Fulmer $9
Alex Colome $11
Danny Duffy $9
David Robertson $3
Seung Hwan Oh $1

As many of these players do not have long established baselines for performance at the MLB Level, projections of my pitching staff tend to vary quite a bit along the range from optimistic to highly skeptical.  This is not surprising at all. My strategy was to embrace skill and talent and to take a chance on that with the understanding that because of the uncertainty surrounding these pitchers, few if any, would go for full value and create an opportunity for s good return on the investment. Now it ’s time to cross my fingers, hope for good health and watch and see if they could build on the positives they have shown thus far in their young careers.

I consider every pitcher here a bargain, with the exception of Berrios who I bought at projected value and Puk who was a speculative play on the basis (and hope) that he might get called up to the Majors more quickly than expected depending on what goes on with the A’s MLB pitching staff and his own progress through Triple-A. I went over my budget by $2 to obtain Robertson in the end game at a bargain and speculative saves play. I originally planned to add no middle relievers and instead rack up as many innings as possible, but given what was available on the market, I went after value instead. In the reserve round, I was pleased to pick up J.C Ramirez as a possible source of innings as I have him valued at around $3. Though I believe Andrew Cashner owed his success to smoke and minors last year, I too a chance on him in the reserve round on the off chance that his swing and miss skills might return given and him worthy of activating. For now, he will stay firmly ensconced on the reserve roster.

So what went wrong? Well, things did not go wrong so much as resources got mis-budgeted and misallocated. I think I was done in by too much info in too small a space and should have utilized my one spreadsheet/one 11×17 sheet of paper approach instead. The upshot was thinking I still had more money in my hitting budget left than I did. I ended up reallocating dollars to additional $20-range players that should have been more evenly distributed along the rest of my hitting roster. The end result was yes, I still spent $193 on hitting, right around target. However, since I had accidentally distributed towards $20 players, I went after what was left on my desired players in that value range and ended up with a less balanced offense statistically than I had in mind. In other words, the value was good; the distribution will necessitate me being an active trader however and I’ve drafted a not quite-stars and scrubs offense.

Yan Gomes         $4
Bruce Maxwell   $1
Logan Morrison $14
Matt Chapman   $16
Mike Napoli        $1
Whit Merrifield  $21
Jean Segura        $22
Elvis Andrus        $24
Kevin Kiermaier $20
Bradley Zimmer $22
Colby Rasmus     $1
Jon Jay                 $1
Nelson Cruz        $26
Ian Kinsler           $20

I look at this roster and see a competitive team and one with leverage to deal.  My own projections, as well as others’, have shown it crushing in stolen bases, albeit well beyond the point necessary to achieve first in that category. On the other hand it’s somewhat deficient in power and overall in need of improvement and balance.

Immediately following the conclusion of the reserve round, which also included prospects with potential to get called up such as Kyle Tucker and Michael Chavis, I was being approached for deals by multiple league members for speed. Lawr Michaels and I on Monday quickly seized upon a deal that jumped off the page to both of us that had us exchange Jean Segura for Jonathan Schoop.  These two players of similar overall dollar value help to balance the projected stats of our teams. The trade should not cost me first place in steals but has the potential to move me up in home runs and RBIs, so I’m satisfied with the move. Since I still have leverage in the steals category, I suspect this will only be the first of several maneuvers I make this upcoming season.

Next year, the lesson I’ve already learned is to go back to my roots and simplify.  I’m not sure I’ll go all the way back to paper and pencil, but it’s possible!

AL Tout Wars 2017, A Draft Day Recap

Tout Wars 2017 – American League Recap

This past weekend I participated once again, alongside friends and industry colleagues, in Tout Wars, the AL version. I’ve been participating in Tout since 2001. This year marks my seventh time competing for the AL. The question is, of course, “will I finally take home the prize this year?” My initial take is, it’s going to be an interesting ride if I do.

Pre-draft strategy: In years past, I’ve gone heavier hitting with a budget of roughly $190 to $205 allocated with anywhere between $70 and $55 left for pitching. I’ve swung to a slightly more conservative allocation lately ($180/$80 at the start of draft day) and may be glad I did with multiple teams this year seeking to push the $190 mark on hitting. Every year I budget my players by slot and shift it on the fly on my spreadsheet as what is on my roster and what is in the player pool varies.

Player wise, I considered Justin Verlander as an anchor option in the mid-twenties, but then opted for a more spread-the-risk focus given the number of pitchers available in the teens range, with Kevin Gausman and Michael Fulmer amongst others drawing my attention. I also decided I would focus on one anchor-closer in the $16 to $19 range, a third starter or a second closer in the lower teens and fill in from there with innings.

On the general hitters’ front, I wanted to make sure I focused more on blending in speed. In years past I’ve loaded up on 4 out of the 5 categories, coming away from drafts well short in the stolen base categories.

Catchers
No one is all that enthused, well ever, at the catcher draft pool. (Maybe say: No one is ever enthused about the catcher draft pool.) I decided from the get-go I’d focus on Gattis and others in the mid-teens range and then fill in my second slot with an end-gamer. I had and continue to have little interest in going above value chasing catchers for the sake of having one.

The Rest of the Hitters
I was Very focused on Carlos Santana.  I had him budgeted for $25 in an OBP-based league as well as other members of the lower-twenties 1B class as possible candidates. For second base, third base, and short I plugged in low to mid-twenties for each of those slots. I then plugged in single digit to low teens figures for my middle infield and corner. For my outfield, I focused on one two outfielders in the twenties, one in the teens and the last in high single digits with a $1 or two left over for my UT and swing as hitters.

The Results
So here’s what I bought:

Catcher: Evan Gattis $16, Roberto Perez $2
I’ll admit I probably purchased Gattis a bit above where I wanted him, but on the same token, despite draft day values with respect to the possession, these players get chased above value in general as teams attempt to land someone viable and I was not willing to chase the likes of Mike Zunino, Yan Gomes, and son on. The fact that Gattis will spend extensive time not behind the plate is actually a plus given the wear and tear of the position. He’s not a tremendous OBP candidate but is one of the more reliable hitters at the position with four straight seasons of achieving 21 or more home runs. A more productive season in 2017 could even be in the cards as Gattis will not spend significant time in the minors getting ready to catch again and instead will spend the entirety of 2017, health-permitting, in the majors.

First Base: C.J. Cron $12
So things did not go according to plans here. Other first basemen went earlier and at higher prices than I desired and many other owners were hot on his tracks when he was finally nominated, eventually going a $1 above my budget. I couldn’t bring myself to say “$27”. As a result, there was not really anything left in the $20 range on the board. So I focused on Cron who I had in the mid-teens, shifted more money to my outfield budget, and was pleased to get Angel’s first basemen below my projected value especially since he may be in line for a greater number of plate appearance this year.

Second Base: Jason Kipnis $16
The Pricing of players I targeted like Jean Segura, Jose Ramirez, etc.  was more competitive and higher than I budgeted. We went to a break and I looked at what was left to spend money on. I had amongst the most, if not the most dollars to work with at the time and focused on several players. I weighted Kipnis’ start on the DL alongside the still fairly solid value I had him at given what else remained, put him on my list. (Last sentence is confusing in terms of grammar) Because I valued him in the low-twenties and he might only miss the first few weeks of the season, I felt $16 was a possible bargain as a power/modest speed threat still.

Third Base: Alex Bregman $20
Bregman was my true target after the break. I dislike targeting rookies and their inherent volatility, but he has strong fundamental skills with a quick/contact-making bat and 20-plus homerun potential. The $20 I spent is technically “under projected value”, but this is definitely a purchase well into his risk above minimum expectations. Much of my success is going to bank on his sophomore season.

Shortstop: Didi Gregorius $6
My other target after that break was Brad Miller and would’ve gone as high as $18.  I lost out to Lawr a second time who was willing to hit $19. After losing out, I shifted yet more money to my outfield and decided to take a chance on Didi Gregorius. Whether or not he’ll have a job when he returns from the DL remains to be seen, but for now, the Yankees are filling in with utility types and not top prospect Gleyber Torres. Prior to the injury, Gregorius was valued into the mid-teens, if not higher and I still had him in the low-teens despite the injury. Taking him at all is a risk, but at $6, with a return as soon as late April or early May, I thought I had him at a price that could ultimately be an easy return on investment, shoulder permitting.

Middle Infield: Jef Lowrie $1
End-game. It was him or J.J. Hardy. This made me instantly put Franklin Barreto at the top of my list for the reserve round draft.

Corner Infield: Pablo Sandoval $7
I was prepared to go higher and happy to land him at this price. The thinner version of the Panda is having a great spring and has the job locked in. At 30 years of age, a rebound to his pre-2015 levels I feel is extremely reasonable. I have been targeting him in all my leagues this year since he’s going below my projected values. He’s a risk I’m willing to take.

Outfielders & Swing: Jose Bautista $26, Jarrod Dyson $17, Carlos Gomez $19, Steven Souza $9, Lorenzo Cain $20

Bautista has been going under value in many leagues, but his power remains as is his value as an OBP player. I had a slot slated for $26 and had him valued at $27. As for Jarrod Dyson, I was noticing that the bidding on speed-merchants was Luke-warm. I wanted to avoid my under-purchasing of speed in previous years, so I went in at $17 to nab him. In theory this is below value given the steals, but I’ve never been a fan of the other skills. I’ll just cross my fingers and hope he still achieves a career high in plate appearances (369 is that high to date). I went after Gomez on similar precedent (what does this mean?) of the Luke-warm/risk adverse bidding when he came up. Again, he is another player I had valued at over $20, but a high risk $20. A healthy Gomez can still get to the mid-teens HRs and the 20-steal range to earn $19. He is still only 31-years old. In theory, he might still have a rebound or two left. Lorenzo Cain is coming off of an injury, but I feel far more confident in his skill set which has stabilized in recent years and thought he was a bargain at $20. Again, he was among the players I targeted for my budget coming off of that break. If nothing else, I have leverage in speed now to trade for other needs. Souza is yet another player with some power/speed skills and dealt with injuries last year. He is an OBP risk given his titanic strikeout rates, but again a possible bargain at $9.

Utility: Kennys Vargas $3
I should have nominated him at $1 and let someone else grab him. He may not make the opening day roster and is dealing with an ill-timed spring injury.

Pitchers: Carlos Carrasco $20, Michael Fulmer $15, Joe Musgrove $7, Carlos Rodon $6, Steven Wright $4, Lucas Giolito $2, Sam Dyson $11, Mychal Givens $2, Kelvin Herrera $19.

Jeff Erickson nominated Herrera as the second nomination at $17. I had him at around $19 and bid $18 when it seemed he might get crickets on it. This is a budget slot filled at  $1 less than I had budgeted, letting me use those funds elsewhere. My first starting pitching grab of Fulmer at $15 was right on target with my plan. Going after Carlos Carrasco, coming off an injury, was off plan when I really was focused on guys like Gausman, Porcello, Hamels, and Sanchez in the mid-teens. If healthy, Carrasco has the skills to earn that value, but we’re talking about a pitcher who has made 30 starts just once and has never thrown more than 183.2 innings. I’m probably buying into too much risk here. For my low-teens slot, I had Musgrove as one my favorite options and was pleased to land him at $7. His stuff, command and bat-missing abilities will have him in the earlier group in the mid-teens or higher next year. The budget savings let me go grab Sam Dyson as a second closer for $11. I know he has other pitchers breathing down his neck for the closer job. His value could very well come down to his management’s patience if he has a bad outing in a row or three.

As I approached the later rounds, I still had only three starters. After last years’ experience of quickly losing two of my five starting pitchers drafted, which in turn quickly sabotaged my season, I wanted to add some more innings. Carlos Rodon was possibly above value especially given that he may begin 2017 on the DL and has some talented arms coming up through the system behind him. Still, he has filthy stuff and his command is improving. Failure or a breakout are both potential outcomes here. Knuckleballer Steven Wright pitched well until injury and then proceeded to get hit hard. The Red Sox added to their depth with the Chris Sale addition, so it remains to be seen how long or how many starts Wright will receive. He could return a profit on his price especially if Price’s injury is more severe or Drew Pomeranz scuffles. I purchased Givens early on as a roster filler as a possible Zach Britton backup and a high-strikeout arm when he was nominated by Glen Colton and Rick Wolf. He’s worth more than $2 to be sure. My final grab, given a dearth of talent at the Major League level, was a speculative play in advance of the reserve round in the form of Lucas Giolito. Reynaldo Lopez may have been a better selection here given his greater experience and the possibility he may get recalled from the minors more quickly, but Giolito is the higher rated prospect with more upside and will get his chance too.

Reserve Roster: Franklin Barreto, Matt Davidson, Yovani Gallardo, Ronald Torreyes
Barreto, especially given Lowrie’s injury history, has a very good chance at a mid-season call-up. A quick adjustment to the majors could make him a game-changer for my season with his blend of tools and skills. Davidson, if he makes the roster for the White Sox, could be an option for my lineup if Vargas fails to make the Twins. Gallardo could fill in some innings for Rodon. If his shoulder is healthy, a rebound is possible, but on the other hand, I would not mind in the least if he didn’t have to touch my roster unless he showed some signs of life first. With Gregorius out, Torreyes was nabbed to bridge the gap.

Wrapping Up
Things ended up going quite a bit differently than I planned and I even ended up moving more dollars towards the pitching side with a final 175/85 split. I often focus on making sure I get the at-bats and eschew risk-taking, but this year I embraced it instead. I think I have built a team that could certainly compete at a high level or implodes in spectacular fashion. Given the lack of trading in Tout, however, the risks you take that pan out may be the ones that win you the league. I’ll take the risk.

 

 

 

2016 AL Tout Wars Recap

This past weekend I enjoyed my annual tradition of participating in two AL-only auctions in two days in NY, NY. While I may love my local league, if you’ve surfed over here, you’ve come to hear more about my AL Tout Wars team. This was my sixteenth Tout Wars draft, my sixth in the American League after 10 years in the National League.

AL Tout Wars
AL Tout Wars – The Fish Bowl

For the full results, you can go here: http://tinyurl.com/j6xst2p.

Pre-Draft: My pre-draft focus was on full-time at-bats. In particular, I targeted at bats those from players with well-established baselines with the idea that I would probably spend between 75% and 80% of my budget on hitting. my pitching would involve purchasing an anchor starter and an established closer closer and filling in my staff around that. I also decided that I’d prefer not to go above $29 for any single player and spread the risk a bit.

So how’d that go, Rob? Well, I spent 67% on hitting and ended up with a pretty traditional team. I am not sure if I recall a Tout draft where there was this aggressive, some might call unrestrained, bidding on hitting.  So, I changed things up as I often do mid-draft, readjusting my individual roster slot goals on the fly on my spreadsheet.  To be honest, this was nudged a bit when I nominated Shawn Tolleson at a price of $14 and received crickets. I’m perfectly fine with this price considering I had him valued a few dollars higher, but with Chad Allen already rostered at $20, this forced my hand away from my pre-draft budget targets.

The Players: Catchers: James McCann ($8) and Kurt Suzuki ($2) – The catching market being slim, I decided to go with two who at least would not hurt me.

First Base: Albert Pujols ($19) – Despite being in the decline phase of his career, Pujols is still durable and coming off of a 40 home run campaign. I purchased him at that price with the idea that he provide at least 25 home runs and that his batting average on balls in play wouldshift back towards his career norms and provide a slightly better OBP.

Second Base: Brian Dozier ($24) – While I can’t expect much more than .315 to .320 OBP, I drafted him for legitimate mid-twenties home run power. His speed skills indicate that his decline in stolen bases was more the result of a decline in opportunities rather than the decline of his raw speed.  Maintaining double-digit steals should at least not be an issue and a return to a slightly higher level might even be reasonable.

Third Base: Kyle Seager ($22) – If you are looking for consistent, boring production from a player amidst his peak, Seager is a clear target. I was pleased to get both Dozier and Seager right at about at value.

Shortstop: Andrelton Simmons ($5) – Not much upside here unless he reverses the ground-ball trend, but his glove ensures consistent at-bats.

Corner: A.J. Reed ($3) – I like to take at least one risk of this nature each time in Tout. He’ll start the year in AAA and could push his way into a starting job by mid-season, depending on the success of others on the depth charts. Given his skill set, I believe he’ll exceed the value drafted, provided the Astros give him the opportunity. Needless to say, finding a back-up for him in the reserve round quickly became my top priority there.

Middle Infield: Chris Coghlan ($5) – I had Coghlan as one of my pre-draft targets. Tout Wars rules allow for 15 games to be the minimum position qualifier rather than the standard twenty, so his power/speed/OBP combination along with his aforementioned versatility and the A’s intent to get him in the lineup regularly, I’m hoping this is a solid bargain.

Outfielders: Nelson Cruz ($26), Kevin Pillar ($18), Melky Cabrera ($12), Carlos Beltran ($12), Seth Smith ($5)

I admit to going slightly overboard on Cruz and Pillar, though I still believe in both players’ ability to produce this season. Cruz’s salary may have been better spent on a speed source or someone with a broader base of skills. The Pillar purchase came as a direct result of me chasing for speed when he was one of the few remaining starters with that talent. The Jays will be using him as a leadoff hitter which in theory could push him towards 30 steals this season, but it remains to be seen how long they’ll keep him there considering his tendency towards poor walk rates. His combination of gap power, speed, and contact skills, at least, gives hope that he is capable of at least repeating last year’s output. The days of Beltran and Cabrera supplying much in the way of stolen bases is long gone, but both again fit my fairly low-risk, get at-bats strategy at reasonable purchase prices as did Seth Smith and Victor Martinez.

In review, this is a roster full of players I am hoping will have one last hurrah. Pujols, Beltran, Martinez, and Cruz are all near the end of their respective careers but continue to display competitive skills. This team will sink or swim depending on whether or not these players decide to show their age.

Starters: Felix Hernandez ($22), Masahiro Tanaka ($17), Andrew Heaney ($3), Chris Bassitt ($3), Anibal Sanchez ($1), Eduardo Rodriguez ($2), Derek Holland ($2)

When targeting my anchor, I did not have Felix Hernandez in mind, having him valued perhaps a bit higher than I intended to spend. I was pleasantly surprised to have him at $22. Yes, the thirty-year-old showed some signs of decline with a drop off to an  8.5 K/9, his highest walk rate since 2011, and his highest ERA since 2008. The right-hander stilll has an otherwise strong skill set going forward and there is hope for improvement given the anomaly that was his home run rate on fly balls from last season. I saved some of my risk for the pitching side, obtaining upside pitchers like Heaney and Rodriguez for a combined $5. Their health and emergence as rotation members will be critical components of my team, but on the same token at just $5 they are both easy to move on from if they fail instead.

Relievers: Cody Allen ($20), Shawn Tolleson ($14) – It is possible I could lead the league in saves this year,. It is, however, more likely that I’ll try to get off to an early lead here and then trade one of the two for other needs, content to tread water in the saves category thereafter.

Bench: Travis Shaw, Aaron Judge, Richie Shaffer, Joakim Soria
Shaw and Judge are both insurance policies. Shaw will go into my lineup immediately to replace A.J. Reed. Should he somehow beat Pablo Sandoval out for the Red Sox’s third base job that will be gravy. He still looks likely to eclipse 300 plate appearances as a super-sub. Judge will be 2016 in AAA and his power bat could push his way into the Yankee’s lineup later this season. In theory, he offers additional trade leverage, plugging his power into my lineup while allowing for me to trade a veteran power bat for another need. Shaffer offers similar potential to Shaw, but perhaps less opportunity at the moment. Soria will go immediately into my active roster to replace an injured Rodriguez or Sanchez.

Kiss of Death?
So the rosters have just been entered into our stats service at onroto.com which has a “toy box” feature that includes two separate projection systems that project the final standings. Apparently these systems like what I did, positioning me at either first or second place.  Is this a kiss of death or are my chances this good? My sense is it’s a bit of both. My team is so veteran-hitting deep, that most projection systems are comfortable regressing and/or hedging projections for these players to a certain level without expecting failure. We’ll find out if they and my own assessments were correct. What do you think?