Category Archives: Tout Wars

Rule Ideas for Running a 60-Game Season Fantasy Baseball League

Tout Wars

Baseball is returning! Whether or not it gets shut down before late July and we get to put on hold again, keeper leagues need to start planning their season to maintain continuity for the 2021 and beyond.

A sixty-game schedule is a ridiculously small sample size and short-term variability will be the largest in determining factor who wins your league without the time available to regress over the length of a traditional seasonal available. Given this, it’s important to adjust some of your league rules and focus on designing the season to be 1) fun, and 2) avoid conditions that could have long-term repercussions when we return, hopefully, to full-season play in  2021, and more likely, 2022.

First off, if having to work from home for over the past three months has taught us anything, we now all have enough experience using platforms like Zoom to have a certain level of comfort to handle an online auction or draft without having to use third-party drafting websites. In fact, as someone who uses draft-ware or an excel sheet regularly to draft, having zoom running in the background while I auction will feel just like an in-person draft with only a single screen and the room to concentrate upon. Handling Tout Wars with an audio chat, draft-ware, and a third-party draft site was fraught and the only way to handle that is to isolate yourself and use pencil and paper in conjunction with a third-party site. A zoom auction instead of the third-party ware “normalizes” draft day in least in terms of your setup, letting you choose from the most complicated of draft software to the most minimalistic approach.

As someone whose day job regularly involves managing public meetings with over 20+ participants while juggling members of the public and their comments and avoiding zoom bombs I assure a 12-person draft is quite manageable.  After all, we are all looking for a means to connect and have a 12-person in-person draft, unless you can run it in your backyard and can still hear everyone’s bids given masks and social distancing, an online meeting is the only way it is going to work.

So, make it personal, or interpersonal for that matter. I know many of us are tired of Zoom work meetings but this is a chance for an entirely social experience that brings you closest to having a normal draft day experience and in some ways, it may even be easier as you won’t have to wait for “so and so’s stuck in traffic”. Afterall you were going to set aside time from your schedule to have a draft day away from the normal workings of your day anyway, so now all you must do is find a quiet spot for a few hours. Which in my case in a family of five, can be a bit daunting unto itself!

So, the first thing you will need to do is get that auction or draft setup.

Auctioneering and In-Auction Setup
If you are lucky enough to find a third party to serve as your league auctioneer, go for it. If not, you will have to identify the main auctioneer and a few back-up auctioneers who can jump in if the main auctioneer is involved in the bidding. You will also have to have someone volunteer running the official budget sheet. I highly recommend using google sheets to this (I could supply one to users here if you so desired for your use). Having done this for years over teleconference, it can be clunky, but it works, and everyone being in the same medium at their locations will be a boon. I have had situations where some of the league has gathered in person and others on their cell phones or landlines and tried to use a conference call to mixed results. The more mediums, the more issues.

Once in the auction, set the auction cadence in advance so everyone uses the same one, and require that no side-chat occur once a player has been nominated and bidding has closed. You may also want everyone to wear a headset with mic to avoid any outside noises being picked up and to enhance the chance everyone is heard clearly. I highly recommend running a practice session first so everyone just to see how it works. Keep in mind that depending on the quality of connections, turning off video might be a good idea but will require everyone to say their name to confirm their bid. There are settings within zoom to highlight the speaker as well which may aid in identifying who bid first. So, to repeat emphasis, run a test run to devise a means of identifying the most comfortable settings for your league.

Snake-Draft Alternative
For some, running an auction over zoom may simply be too daunting. Or the dynamics of an auction and different strategies teams might have, whether owners are really playing to compete for this season’s prize (more on that later) or not could lead to some unusual bidding compared to normal. So, as an alternative, you may wish to run a snake draft and then assign values by round or even pick made in declining value order. If you want to get even more granular, the available pool is not a mystery at all if you decide to go the snake-draft format. In that scenario come to a consensus on a set of values for players and use them when a player is taken. The bonus with a snake draft style is you won’t have to worry about side-chatter and management of the actual online meeting event is much more relaxed.

Adjusted Rule Ideas

Keeper Contracts – Given the shortened season I am recommending you that suspend the rolling over of contracts for one year. In the case of those leagues where a player is due to get a long-term contract have the owner identify that long-term contract, but do not count 2020 as a year on that contract.

Prizes – If your leagues utilize a monetary prize lowering dues is highly advised since the element of chance is more of a factor than typical for 2020.  It is also recommended that you set a minimum threshold for games played to even award prizes. I’m recommending that at least half the sixty-game schedule be played and if it is fewer than sixty, that it be prorated with some of the funding returned.

Prizes and League Style for 2020 – Your league must now answer the question about how they want 2020 to function. Do they just want to consider this year as in “maintenance mode” by running the draft and avoiding possibly dynamic trades and concentrate on FAAB or do you want it to feel more likely a typical season.

For example, in my twelve-team AL-only league, we normally distribute prizes to the top four teams with the majority going to first place. The fifth-place team doesn’t get a monetary prize, but gets the first pick in our next year’s minor league draft and goes from there to the 12th pick and then starts up again with the 4th place team getting the next pick after the 12th and so on until the winner receives the 12th overall pick. So, for this year, I recommend considering shifting your prizes to first and second place only and winner take all. (And if use a minor-league draft-place reward like we do, moving up that up to the first place that does not receive a monetary prize).

In this way, the lower cash stakes might still add up to approximately a full-season prize for first place and may encourage more aggressive trading and FAAB bids to make it feel more like a regular season. You and your league will have to make this decision, knowing the context of how your league operates. If dump trading is the norm, this may result in some significant dump trades for a short season gain that could have long-term consequences. So, if you have a salary cap, restricting it a bit more to avoid complete, wholesale dumps deals, might be in your best interest. So if you use a $325 in-season cap perhaps lowering it to $310 or $300 might be advised temporarily.

This is article is meant to get ideas flowing. So, If you have any other league ideas and alternatives to share or best practices for running an auction over the Internet, feel free to share in the comments below.

Six Degrees of Fantasy Baseball Victory

Expert League, Tout Wars, Uncategorized, , , , ,

*Note this article first appeared in The Fantasy Baseball Guide Professional Edition 2020 available on a newsstand near you now and online at https://www.thefantasyguide.com/

My victory this year in AL Tout Wars, like any fantasy baseball win, was the product of draft day strategy, free agency and trade savvy, and a fair share of luck.

Mitigating Risk
For years I’ve been a proponent of “boring is best” or risk mitigation. To that end, I went with a budget of 180 to 190 on hitters, rostering stalwarts in the power/OBP categories like Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana, and Nelson Cruz all while without going over $25 and budgeting between $180-$190 hitting. In the same vain I targeted an established ace and went with Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Corey Kluber being my other primary targets. The reason was those three, plus Kluber, were the only amongst a bunch of pitchers being purchased at ace-level prices, had the baseline of throwing the amount and quality of innings at a high level for the last three or more years. As we can see, anchoring your staff especially at the above normal prices of 2019 is a risky move, but some options, at least theoretically speaking, were safer options than others based on track record.

Draft Day Bargains
I was certain Mike Minor ($7), D.J. LeMahieu ($9), and Mark Canha (RES) were all going to earn profits for me, but more of the $15 to $20 combined range. I didn’t predict LeMahieu improving on his Coors Field experience or for Minor to throw over 200 innings and perform at that high a level. Minor was grabbed after pitching budgets had emptied out while LeMahieu and Canha’s uncertain playing time muted the room’s enthusiasm to acquire them.

Knowing Your League Rules
Tout Wars has a fifteen-game minimum rule as opposed to the normal twenty and often in the heat of the auction, it can fall by the wayside and lead to opportunities which I found for Carlos Santana at 3B and Jonathan Schoop to fit nicely at shortstop. At the very least, targeting the secondary position of players for later in the auction or draft for when their primary positions have been filled on other league mate’s roster is a good way to bargain hunt.

Lemons into Lemonade
While I aimed to snag an ace of the three I mentioned above, I also wanted to similarly focus on anchoring my pen with a closer with a fair track record and failed miserably to say “$20” on Aroldis Chapman and ended up with Cody Allen at $14. Allen at the time had the saves track record, but every other bit of his skills and talents were trending downwards and he may now be out of baseball, let alone no longer a closer. Having a failed closer early in the season though helps focus one’s efforts on his likely successor and everything pointed to the Angel’s favoring Hansel Robles over second-year player Ty Buttrey and I pounced with a risky $300+ bid. Robles is known for his strikeouts and the home runs he’s let up, particularly with my hometown Mets, so a few of those early on could have sunk them, but a closer role and non-high leverage situation suited him. Liam Hendriks meanwhile had similarly established himself as the number two guy while Blake Treinen was struggling and managed to pick him up before he was potentially prohibitively expensive. I originally projected myself to finish in the lower to the middle of the pack in saves with Allen, but the duo along with the occasional save from Adam Ottavino, whose value in innings and strikeouts cannot be understated in the environment of the post-200 inning starter era, landed me third place in saves. The addition of a second closer in single-league only formats remains one of the easiest and best ways to vault up the standings if you can acquire them via trade or FAAB.

Minor League Monitoring
Another of Tout Wars’ somewhat unique rules is the ability to pick up players still in the minors and add them to your roster provided you’re willing to earn 0 points in that roster slot for the upcoming week. When you’re replacing an injured or unproductive player, that’s an easy call. Yordan Alvarez was mauling Triple-A pitching and Houston was playing with a platoon outfield, an injury to Springer, and a revolving door at DH made him a very targeted grab in late April at $9. The luck/lesson here is being lucky enough where no one else was ready to pull the trigger yet and to be thinking several weeks in advance. There were several other good examples of this year with Orlando Mercado and Cavan Biggio being other examples of good grabs in that regard. It helps though to focus on contending teams not afraid of service time. The White Sox have had Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert destroy the minors two years in a row, tantalizing fantasy owners as potential call-ups. I had drafted and then re-FAABed Oakland catcher Sean Murphy just shy of September call-ups knowing he’d get a chance to play and though used part-time, played well.

Trades
Down the stretch especially I targeted the categories I could make ground in and categories I could try to block others. With several late injuries on the hitting side, my best bets were to focus on steals, wins, and strikeouts. For the first part, I moved Aaron Hicks for Mallex Smith. Neither player was particularly good, but all I wanted were steals and the 19 I received were ideal. Though out of contention for Greinke on FAAB day, I used my depth on offense to acquire him the day after the MLB trade deadline who acc9ounted for 7 wins, a 3.02 ERA, and 50 strikeouts.

The Final Week
The standings were tight with me a nervous mess from August on. The last two weeks were all about filling in gaps with callups (Murphy and Ryan McBroom) and maximizing opportunities to obtain wins and strikeouts given enough breathing room in ERA/WHIP categories to throw Dillon Peters, Trent Thornton, and Gio Gonzalez into action. It didn’t hurt that Justin Verlander was chasing 3,000 career K’s and 300 season strikeouts as milestones that week either.

AL Tout Wars 2017, A Draft Day Recap

Expert League, Tout Wars

Tout Wars 2017 – American League Recap

This past weekend I participated once again, alongside friends and industry colleagues, in Tout Wars, the AL version. I’ve been participating in Tout since 2001. This year marks my seventh time competing for the AL. The question is, of course, “will I finally take home the prize this year?” My initial take is, it’s going to be an interesting ride if I do.

Pre-draft strategy: In years past, I’ve gone heavier hitting with a budget of roughly $190 to $205 allocated with anywhere between $70 and $55 left for pitching. I’ve swung to a slightly more conservative allocation lately ($180/$80 at the start of draft day) and may be glad I did with multiple teams this year seeking to push the $190 mark on hitting. Every year I budget my players by slot and shift it on the fly on my spreadsheet as what is on my roster and what is in the player pool varies.

Player wise, I considered Justin Verlander as an anchor option in the mid-twenties, but then opted for a more spread-the-risk focus given the number of pitchers available in the teens range, with Kevin Gausman and Michael Fulmer amongst others drawing my attention. I also decided I would focus on one anchor-closer in the $16 to $19 range, a third starter or a second closer in the lower teens and fill in from there with innings.

On the general hitters’ front, I wanted to make sure I focused more on blending in speed. In years past I’ve loaded up on 4 out of the 5 categories, coming away from drafts well short in the stolen base categories.

Catchers
No one is all that enthused, well ever, at the catcher draft pool. (Maybe say: No one is ever enthused about the catcher draft pool.) I decided from the get-go I’d focus on Gattis and others in the mid-teens range and then fill in my second slot with an end-gamer. I had and continue to have little interest in going above value chasing catchers for the sake of having one.

The Rest of the Hitters
I was Very focused on Carlos Santana.  I had him budgeted for $25 in an OBP-based league as well as other members of the lower-twenties 1B class as possible candidates. For second base, third base, and short I plugged in low to mid-twenties for each of those slots. I then plugged in single digit to low teens figures for my middle infield and corner. For my outfield, I focused on one two outfielders in the twenties, one in the teens and the last in high single digits with a $1 or two left over for my UT and swing as hitters.

The Results
So here’s what I bought:

Catcher: Evan Gattis $16, Roberto Perez $2
I’ll admit I probably purchased Gattis a bit above where I wanted him, but on the same token, despite draft day values with respect to the possession, these players get chased above value in general as teams attempt to land someone viable and I was not willing to chase the likes of Mike Zunino, Yan Gomes, and son on. The fact that Gattis will spend extensive time not behind the plate is actually a plus given the wear and tear of the position. He’s not a tremendous OBP candidate but is one of the more reliable hitters at the position with four straight seasons of achieving 21 or more home runs. A more productive season in 2017 could even be in the cards as Gattis will not spend significant time in the minors getting ready to catch again and instead will spend the entirety of 2017, health-permitting, in the majors.

First Base: C.J. Cron $12
So things did not go according to plans here. Other first basemen went earlier and at higher prices than I desired and many other owners were hot on his tracks when he was finally nominated, eventually going a $1 above my budget. I couldn’t bring myself to say “$27”. As a result, there was not really anything left in the $20 range on the board. So I focused on Cron who I had in the mid-teens, shifted more money to my outfield budget, and was pleased to get Angel’s first basemen below my projected value especially since he may be in line for a greater number of plate appearance this year.

Second Base: Jason Kipnis $16
The Pricing of players I targeted like Jean Segura, Jose Ramirez, etc.  was more competitive and higher than I budgeted. We went to a break and I looked at what was left to spend money on. I had amongst the most, if not the most dollars to work with at the time and focused on several players. I weighted Kipnis’ start on the DL alongside the still fairly solid value I had him at given what else remained, put him on my list. (Last sentence is confusing in terms of grammar) Because I valued him in the low-twenties and he might only miss the first few weeks of the season, I felt $16 was a possible bargain as a power/modest speed threat still.

Third Base: Alex Bregman $20
Bregman was my true target after the break. I dislike targeting rookies and their inherent volatility, but he has strong fundamental skills with a quick/contact-making bat and 20-plus homerun potential. The $20 I spent is technically “under projected value”, but this is definitely a purchase well into his risk above minimum expectations. Much of my success is going to bank on his sophomore season.

Shortstop: Didi Gregorius $6
My other target after that break was Brad Miller and would’ve gone as high as $18.  I lost out to Lawr a second time who was willing to hit $19. After losing out, I shifted yet more money to my outfield and decided to take a chance on Didi Gregorius. Whether or not he’ll have a job when he returns from the DL remains to be seen, but for now, the Yankees are filling in with utility types and not top prospect Gleyber Torres. Prior to the injury, Gregorius was valued into the mid-teens, if not higher and I still had him in the low-teens despite the injury. Taking him at all is a risk, but at $6, with a return as soon as late April or early May, I thought I had him at a price that could ultimately be an easy return on investment, shoulder permitting.

Middle Infield: Jef Lowrie $1
End-game. It was him or J.J. Hardy. This made me instantly put Franklin Barreto at the top of my list for the reserve round draft.

Corner Infield: Pablo Sandoval $7
I was prepared to go higher and happy to land him at this price. The thinner version of the Panda is having a great spring and has the job locked in. At 30 years of age, a rebound to his pre-2015 levels I feel is extremely reasonable. I have been targeting him in all my leagues this year since he’s going below my projected values. He’s a risk I’m willing to take.

Outfielders & Swing: Jose Bautista $26, Jarrod Dyson $17, Carlos Gomez $19, Steven Souza $9, Lorenzo Cain $20

Bautista has been going under value in many leagues, but his power remains as is his value as an OBP player. I had a slot slated for $26 and had him valued at $27. As for Jarrod Dyson, I was noticing that the bidding on speed-merchants was Luke-warm. I wanted to avoid my under-purchasing of speed in previous years, so I went in at $17 to nab him. In theory this is below value given the steals, but I’ve never been a fan of the other skills. I’ll just cross my fingers and hope he still achieves a career high in plate appearances (369 is that high to date). I went after Gomez on similar precedent (what does this mean?) of the Luke-warm/risk adverse bidding when he came up. Again, he is another player I had valued at over $20, but a high risk $20. A healthy Gomez can still get to the mid-teens HRs and the 20-steal range to earn $19. He is still only 31-years old. In theory, he might still have a rebound or two left. Lorenzo Cain is coming off of an injury, but I feel far more confident in his skill set which has stabilized in recent years and thought he was a bargain at $20. Again, he was among the players I targeted for my budget coming off of that break. If nothing else, I have leverage in speed now to trade for other needs. Souza is yet another player with some power/speed skills and dealt with injuries last year. He is an OBP risk given his titanic strikeout rates, but again a possible bargain at $9.

Utility: Kennys Vargas $3
I should have nominated him at $1 and let someone else grab him. He may not make the opening day roster and is dealing with an ill-timed spring injury.

Pitchers: Carlos Carrasco $20, Michael Fulmer $15, Joe Musgrove $7, Carlos Rodon $6, Steven Wright $4, Lucas Giolito $2, Sam Dyson $11, Mychal Givens $2, Kelvin Herrera $19.

Jeff Erickson nominated Herrera as the second nomination at $17. I had him at around $19 and bid $18 when it seemed he might get crickets on it. This is a budget slot filled at  $1 less than I had budgeted, letting me use those funds elsewhere. My first starting pitching grab of Fulmer at $15 was right on target with my plan. Going after Carlos Carrasco, coming off an injury, was off plan when I really was focused on guys like Gausman, Porcello, Hamels, and Sanchez in the mid-teens. If healthy, Carrasco has the skills to earn that value, but we’re talking about a pitcher who has made 30 starts just once and has never thrown more than 183.2 innings. I’m probably buying into too much risk here. For my low-teens slot, I had Musgrove as one my favorite options and was pleased to land him at $7. His stuff, command and bat-missing abilities will have him in the earlier group in the mid-teens or higher next year. The budget savings let me go grab Sam Dyson as a second closer for $11. I know he has other pitchers breathing down his neck for the closer job. His value could very well come down to his management’s patience if he has a bad outing in a row or three.

As I approached the later rounds, I still had only three starters. After last years’ experience of quickly losing two of my five starting pitchers drafted, which in turn quickly sabotaged my season, I wanted to add some more innings. Carlos Rodon was possibly above value especially given that he may begin 2017 on the DL and has some talented arms coming up through the system behind him. Still, he has filthy stuff and his command is improving. Failure or a breakout are both potential outcomes here. Knuckleballer Steven Wright pitched well until injury and then proceeded to get hit hard. The Red Sox added to their depth with the Chris Sale addition, so it remains to be seen how long or how many starts Wright will receive. He could return a profit on his price especially if Price’s injury is more severe or Drew Pomeranz scuffles. I purchased Givens early on as a roster filler as a possible Zach Britton backup and a high-strikeout arm when he was nominated by Glen Colton and Rick Wolf. He’s worth more than $2 to be sure. My final grab, given a dearth of talent at the Major League level, was a speculative play in advance of the reserve round in the form of Lucas Giolito. Reynaldo Lopez may have been a better selection here given his greater experience and the possibility he may get recalled from the minors more quickly, but Giolito is the higher rated prospect with more upside and will get his chance too.

Reserve Roster: Franklin Barreto, Matt Davidson, Yovani Gallardo, Ronald Torreyes
Barreto, especially given Lowrie’s injury history, has a very good chance at a mid-season call-up. A quick adjustment to the majors could make him a game-changer for my season with his blend of tools and skills. Davidson, if he makes the roster for the White Sox, could be an option for my lineup if Vargas fails to make the Twins. Gallardo could fill in some innings for Rodon. If his shoulder is healthy, a rebound is possible, but on the other hand, I would not mind in the least if he didn’t have to touch my roster unless he showed some signs of life first. With Gregorius out, Torreyes was nabbed to bridge the gap.

Wrapping Up
Things ended up going quite a bit differently than I planned and I even ended up moving more dollars towards the pitching side with a final 175/85 split. I often focus on making sure I get the at-bats and eschew risk-taking, but this year I embraced it instead. I think I have built a team that could certainly compete at a high level or implodes in spectacular fashion. Given the lack of trading in Tout, however, the risks you take that pan out may be the ones that win you the league. I’ll take the risk.

 

 

 

Travis Shaw, Red Sox Starting Third Basemen

Diamond Exchange, Tout Wars, Transaction Analysis, , , , , ,

It was announced today that Travis Shaw will enter the season as the Boston Red Sox’s starting third basemen sending Pablo Sandoval to back-up 3B/1B/pinch-hitting role. So what, you may ask, are the odds of this move actually sticking? Is Shaw a legitimate starter and can he prevail against major league pitching? What is the opportunity cost of not playing Sandoval?

Well, first and foremost, the number one reason Shaw was selected over Sandoval was for his defensive skills. Shaw came up as a first basemen and was considered plus for the position. Shaw played third base in college and has a good glove and throwing arm, but a somewhat limited range which was of course the reason he moved to first base as a professional. Be that as it may, he still has the greater range compared to Sandoval who has ranked as one of the worst defensive third basemen in baseball.

Offensively, Sandoval at only 29 years of age already appears to be post peak. The switch-hitter remains an aggressive, contact-oriented hitter who has struck out around 13% of the time over his career, but who has also swung well above the league average on balls outside the strike zone throughout his career. Of concern, last year was Sandoval’s increasing tendency towards becoming a ground ball hitter which may place a cap on his power production and ability to hit for average. The groundball rate of nearly 50% represents a substantial jump from the previous season and so could be an outlier, but it remains to be seen whether or not it is the beginning of an unwelcome trend. In other words, despite his substantial contract, having the Red Sox play a sub-par defensive 3B with limited power and on-base skills that may be more of a detriment to the team than a positive seems reason enough to at least give another player a chance.

Enter Travis Shaw. As I have mentioned, while he is an adequate defender at third, he still represents a substantial upgrade at the position. On the hitting side of things, Shaw has demonstrated greater power with 18 home runs combined between Triple-A and the Majors. The lefty is a fly-ball hitter who has consistently demonstrated average power, hitting 19 homers in 2012 followed by two straight seasons of twenty-one home run campaigns in 2013 and 2014. Shaw’s power production has been considered average and not the outstanding variety typically coveted for starting first basemen in the majors, but if he can handle third base over the course of the season, his power would profile far better there.

Earlier in his career, Shaw demonstrated above-average control of the strike zone but since reaching AAA has become less passive with walk rates dropping from around 14% to the 8% mark and just 7.3% of his time in the majors last year. Not surprisingly his strikeout rates have gone up correspondingly though they translated well to the majors and have not spiked upwards further though it remains to be seen what they do over a larger sample.

The overall combination of power and plate discipline skill suggests Shaw could be an average regular, capable of hitting in the .250s to .270s with upper-teens to low-twenties homerun power. In other words, if he can achieve that level while playing superior defense to Sandoval he should, in theory, be able to hold off the competition. Any ability on Shaw’s part to reassert some control of the strike zone would only help to further entrench him and reduce the chances of him being a streak hitter. At the moment, Shaw’s skill set does suggest he could endure some peaks and valleys which could potentially reopen the door for the well-paid Sandoval. Fortunately, in most leagues, up until this announcement Shaw was available at a discount or in reserve rounds, making the risk of investment low while providing plenty a good amount of room for possible profit. Considering I selected him as  my first pick in the reserve round of AL Tout Wars as a result of purchasing A.J. Reed at auction, I certainly hope so!