AL Tout Wars 2017, A Draft Day Recap

Expert League, Tout Wars

Tout Wars 2017 – American League Recap

This past weekend I participated once again, alongside friends and industry colleagues, in Tout Wars, the AL version. I’ve been participating in Tout since 2001. This year marks my seventh time competing for the AL. The question is, of course, “will I finally take home the prize this year?” My initial take is, it’s going to be an interesting ride if I do.

Pre-draft strategy: In years past, I’ve gone heavier hitting with a budget of roughly $190 to $205 allocated with anywhere between $70 and $55 left for pitching. I’ve swung to a slightly more conservative allocation lately ($180/$80 at the start of draft day) and may be glad I did with multiple teams this year seeking to push the $190 mark on hitting. Every year I budget my players by slot and shift it on the fly on my spreadsheet as what is on my roster and what is in the player pool varies.

Player wise, I considered Justin Verlander as an anchor option in the mid-twenties, but then opted for a more spread-the-risk focus given the number of pitchers available in the teens range, with Kevin Gausman and Michael Fulmer amongst others drawing my attention. I also decided I would focus on one anchor-closer in the $16 to $19 range, a third starter or a second closer in the lower teens and fill in from there with innings.

On the general hitters’ front, I wanted to make sure I focused more on blending in speed. In years past I’ve loaded up on 4 out of the 5 categories, coming away from drafts well short in the stolen base categories.

Catchers
No one is all that enthused, well ever, at the catcher draft pool. (Maybe say: No one is ever enthused about the catcher draft pool.) I decided from the get-go I’d focus on Gattis and others in the mid-teens range and then fill in my second slot with an end-gamer. I had and continue to have little interest in going above value chasing catchers for the sake of having one.

The Rest of the Hitters
I was Very focused on Carlos Santana.  I had him budgeted for $25 in an OBP-based league as well as other members of the lower-twenties 1B class as possible candidates. For second base, third base, and short I plugged in low to mid-twenties for each of those slots. I then plugged in single digit to low teens figures for my middle infield and corner. For my outfield, I focused on one two outfielders in the twenties, one in the teens and the last in high single digits with a $1 or two left over for my UT and swing as hitters.

The Results
So here’s what I bought:

Catcher: Evan Gattis $16, Roberto Perez $2
I’ll admit I probably purchased Gattis a bit above where I wanted him, but on the same token, despite draft day values with respect to the possession, these players get chased above value in general as teams attempt to land someone viable and I was not willing to chase the likes of Mike Zunino, Yan Gomes, and son on. The fact that Gattis will spend extensive time not behind the plate is actually a plus given the wear and tear of the position. He’s not a tremendous OBP candidate but is one of the more reliable hitters at the position with four straight seasons of achieving 21 or more home runs. A more productive season in 2017 could even be in the cards as Gattis will not spend significant time in the minors getting ready to catch again and instead will spend the entirety of 2017, health-permitting, in the majors.

First Base: C.J. Cron $12
So things did not go according to plans here. Other first basemen went earlier and at higher prices than I desired and many other owners were hot on his tracks when he was finally nominated, eventually going a $1 above my budget. I couldn’t bring myself to say “$27”. As a result, there was not really anything left in the $20 range on the board. So I focused on Cron who I had in the mid-teens, shifted more money to my outfield budget, and was pleased to get Angel’s first basemen below my projected value especially since he may be in line for a greater number of plate appearance this year.

Second Base: Jason Kipnis $16
The Pricing of players I targeted like Jean Segura, Jose Ramirez, etc.  was more competitive and higher than I budgeted. We went to a break and I looked at what was left to spend money on. I had amongst the most, if not the most dollars to work with at the time and focused on several players. I weighted Kipnis’ start on the DL alongside the still fairly solid value I had him at given what else remained, put him on my list. (Last sentence is confusing in terms of grammar) Because I valued him in the low-twenties and he might only miss the first few weeks of the season, I felt $16 was a possible bargain as a power/modest speed threat still.

Third Base: Alex Bregman $20
Bregman was my true target after the break. I dislike targeting rookies and their inherent volatility, but he has strong fundamental skills with a quick/contact-making bat and 20-plus homerun potential. The $20 I spent is technically “under projected value”, but this is definitely a purchase well into his risk above minimum expectations. Much of my success is going to bank on his sophomore season.

Shortstop: Didi Gregorius $6
My other target after that break was Brad Miller and would’ve gone as high as $18.  I lost out to Lawr a second time who was willing to hit $19. After losing out, I shifted yet more money to my outfield and decided to take a chance on Didi Gregorius. Whether or not he’ll have a job when he returns from the DL remains to be seen, but for now, the Yankees are filling in with utility types and not top prospect Gleyber Torres. Prior to the injury, Gregorius was valued into the mid-teens, if not higher and I still had him in the low-teens despite the injury. Taking him at all is a risk, but at $6, with a return as soon as late April or early May, I thought I had him at a price that could ultimately be an easy return on investment, shoulder permitting.

Middle Infield: Jef Lowrie $1
End-game. It was him or J.J. Hardy. This made me instantly put Franklin Barreto at the top of my list for the reserve round draft.

Corner Infield: Pablo Sandoval $7
I was prepared to go higher and happy to land him at this price. The thinner version of the Panda is having a great spring and has the job locked in. At 30 years of age, a rebound to his pre-2015 levels I feel is extremely reasonable. I have been targeting him in all my leagues this year since he’s going below my projected values. He’s a risk I’m willing to take.

Outfielders & Swing: Jose Bautista $26, Jarrod Dyson $17, Carlos Gomez $19, Steven Souza $9, Lorenzo Cain $20

Bautista has been going under value in many leagues, but his power remains as is his value as an OBP player. I had a slot slated for $26 and had him valued at $27. As for Jarrod Dyson, I was noticing that the bidding on speed-merchants was Luke-warm. I wanted to avoid my under-purchasing of speed in previous years, so I went in at $17 to nab him. In theory this is below value given the steals, but I’ve never been a fan of the other skills. I’ll just cross my fingers and hope he still achieves a career high in plate appearances (369 is that high to date). I went after Gomez on similar precedent (what does this mean?) of the Luke-warm/risk adverse bidding when he came up. Again, he is another player I had valued at over $20, but a high risk $20. A healthy Gomez can still get to the mid-teens HRs and the 20-steal range to earn $19. He is still only 31-years old. In theory, he might still have a rebound or two left. Lorenzo Cain is coming off of an injury, but I feel far more confident in his skill set which has stabilized in recent years and thought he was a bargain at $20. Again, he was among the players I targeted for my budget coming off of that break. If nothing else, I have leverage in speed now to trade for other needs. Souza is yet another player with some power/speed skills and dealt with injuries last year. He is an OBP risk given his titanic strikeout rates, but again a possible bargain at $9.

Utility: Kennys Vargas $3
I should have nominated him at $1 and let someone else grab him. He may not make the opening day roster and is dealing with an ill-timed spring injury.

Pitchers: Carlos Carrasco $20, Michael Fulmer $15, Joe Musgrove $7, Carlos Rodon $6, Steven Wright $4, Lucas Giolito $2, Sam Dyson $11, Mychal Givens $2, Kelvin Herrera $19.

Jeff Erickson nominated Herrera as the second nomination at $17. I had him at around $19 and bid $18 when it seemed he might get crickets on it. This is a budget slot filled at  $1 less than I had budgeted, letting me use those funds elsewhere. My first starting pitching grab of Fulmer at $15 was right on target with my plan. Going after Carlos Carrasco, coming off an injury, was off plan when I really was focused on guys like Gausman, Porcello, Hamels, and Sanchez in the mid-teens. If healthy, Carrasco has the skills to earn that value, but we’re talking about a pitcher who has made 30 starts just once and has never thrown more than 183.2 innings. I’m probably buying into too much risk here. For my low-teens slot, I had Musgrove as one my favorite options and was pleased to land him at $7. His stuff, command and bat-missing abilities will have him in the earlier group in the mid-teens or higher next year. The budget savings let me go grab Sam Dyson as a second closer for $11. I know he has other pitchers breathing down his neck for the closer job. His value could very well come down to his management’s patience if he has a bad outing in a row or three.

As I approached the later rounds, I still had only three starters. After last years’ experience of quickly losing two of my five starting pitchers drafted, which in turn quickly sabotaged my season, I wanted to add some more innings. Carlos Rodon was possibly above value especially given that he may begin 2017 on the DL and has some talented arms coming up through the system behind him. Still, he has filthy stuff and his command is improving. Failure or a breakout are both potential outcomes here. Knuckleballer Steven Wright pitched well until injury and then proceeded to get hit hard. The Red Sox added to their depth with the Chris Sale addition, so it remains to be seen how long or how many starts Wright will receive. He could return a profit on his price especially if Price’s injury is more severe or Drew Pomeranz scuffles. I purchased Givens early on as a roster filler as a possible Zach Britton backup and a high-strikeout arm when he was nominated by Glen Colton and Rick Wolf. He’s worth more than $2 to be sure. My final grab, given a dearth of talent at the Major League level, was a speculative play in advance of the reserve round in the form of Lucas Giolito. Reynaldo Lopez may have been a better selection here given his greater experience and the possibility he may get recalled from the minors more quickly, but Giolito is the higher rated prospect with more upside and will get his chance too.

Reserve Roster: Franklin Barreto, Matt Davidson, Yovani Gallardo, Ronald Torreyes
Barreto, especially given Lowrie’s injury history, has a very good chance at a mid-season call-up. A quick adjustment to the majors could make him a game-changer for my season with his blend of tools and skills. Davidson, if he makes the roster for the White Sox, could be an option for my lineup if Vargas fails to make the Twins. Gallardo could fill in some innings for Rodon. If his shoulder is healthy, a rebound is possible, but on the other hand, I would not mind in the least if he didn’t have to touch my roster unless he showed some signs of life first. With Gregorius out, Torreyes was nabbed to bridge the gap.

Wrapping Up
Things ended up going quite a bit differently than I planned and I even ended up moving more dollars towards the pitching side with a final 175/85 split. I often focus on making sure I get the at-bats and eschew risk-taking, but this year I embraced it instead. I think I have built a team that could certainly compete at a high level or implodes in spectacular fashion. Given the lack of trading in Tout, however, the risks you take that pan out may be the ones that win you the league. I’ll take the risk.

 

 

 

The Diamond Exchange: Royals Sign Hammel

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Yesterday the Kansas City Royals brought in Jason Hammel in on a two-year deal.  A move, sadly, was necessary to do to the untimely death of Yordano Ventura.

Hammel, 34, at least can be relied upon to pick up some of the innings as he comes off a second consecutive thirty-start season, though he has never thrown more than 177.2 innings and a season and seems to end up in the 170-ranging every full season of his career. The righty was also left off the Cubs’ World Series roster due to elbow tightness and must prove he is once again healthy. His control numbers should, therefore, be a primary focus to monitor that issue.

Hammel has a solid history as a strike-thrower (Career 2.8 BB/9 and 2.9 in 2016), but has been noted to allow home runs at high rates on a regular basis and has consistently, thanks in part to suppressed batting averages on a ball in play, has kept his ERA under a 4.00 with some frequency despite allowing home runs on fly-ball rates ranging in the 11 to 13% area.

Going forward there really is not much reason to expect any substantial changes from his performance, health-permitting, given a stable skill set and no changes to the velocity of his offerings. While his suppressed BABIP might regress, he is moving to one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in the majors with respect to home runs and should benefit from that making him still a candidate to get into the double digits in Wins and possibly still maintain a below-4.00 ERA though his xFIP and FIP last suggested that it should be in the mid-4’s. If you spend more than $5 on auction day in AL-only leagues, however, you will certainly eat into or could completely erase your potential profit margin.

Personal Note: I have been nominated as one of three finalists for Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year, Print for 2016! You can listen in and see if I won this evening by tuning into http://www.siriusxm.com/fantasysportsradio tonight at 9 PM eastern!

Diamond Exchange: Straily to the Marlins for Prospects

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The Reds moved Dan Straily to the Marlins for Luis Castillo, Austin Brice, and Isaiah White. Straily made 31 starts and threw over 190 innings for Cincinnati last year and manage a sub-4.00 ERA. With Robert Stephenson pushing for a regular turn in the rotation, Straily became excess baggage that they could leverage for prospects

Despite a solid 7+ K/9 and 3.4 BB/9, a slew of metrics indicate that Straily was pitching well over his head and getting out of town might help him to avoid an ERA over 5.00 in 2017 given how homerun friendly the Great American Ballpark is. The former A’s outwardly good ERA was suppressed by both a .239 batting average balls in play as well as a left-on-base rate of over 80%. Straily also continued to struggle with the long ball, allowing a 1.4 HR/9 and 12% HR/FB rate. It does not help that he is predominately a fly-ball pitcher (48%). A move to Miami and its cozier confines could keep his ERA in the mid 4’s, but still in end game or reserve round territory for most NL-only leagues.

As for the Red’s hall, Luis Castillo is the best of the lot. The 24-year old righty already is throwing in the upper nineties and spins the ball well with a solid slider/curve combo and a developing changeup, but so far he has not missed as many bats as one would expect since moving into a full-time starting role, barely registering a 7.0 K/9 A+ ball this year. Given his age, he’ll begin 2017 in at least Double-A, if not Triple-A and could see some time in the majors as well.

Another 24-year old, Austin Brice is another right-hander who could help the Reds out as earlier as this season. A reliever, Brice showed much-improved control in Double-A with a 2.8 BB/9. He saw brief action at  Triple-A and the majors as well. The former starter features a solid fastball/slider combination and profiles as a middle reliever.

Finally, we come to Isaiah White. The 20-year old is the project of the trade having only seen action in short-season ball. There is a lot to like in the tools, particularly the speed, department, but he has struggled mightily to make contact, striking out 30% of the time while batting just .214. At this time, he is a name to note, not draft for fantasy baseball purposes.

Diamond Exchange: A Duo of Deals

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Trade Background: A busy Wednesday for the Mariners ended in two trades and moving several key members of their farm system. The first deal with Atlanta sent Luiz Gohara and Thomas Burrows to them in exchange for Mallex Smith and Shae Simmons. The second with Tampa Bay sent Smith on to his second team of the day along with Carlos Vargas and Ryan Yarbrough. for Drew Smyly.

It has been no secret the Mariners are targeting veteran starters to shore up their rotation and it appears they have their final piece as they head towards spring training. The M’s are also taking a chance that Simmons is healthy and could add him to the bullpen mix this spring or by mid-season.

For the Braves this is all about acquiring arms with upside and both Gohara and Burrows have some, especially Gohara.

The Rays, content to move on from Smyly, also chased young talent. Smith fits a theme amongst Rays outfielders in terms of speed and defense rather than power. Carlos Vargas has the potential to be the steal of the deal but is only 17 and it may be years before he is relevant, if at all. Yarbrough contrasts against Vargas as near major league ready journeyman who gives the Rays another in-house option that they could put to use as soon as this season.

Roster Impacts: The deal contains relatively few MLB roster impacts despite the number of players changing hands. Smyly, health permitting, slots into a Mariner’s rotation slot that Ariel Miranda and Chris Heston might have competed. One of the two will now vie for a long-relief role while the other will likely be held in reserve in Triple-A.  Shae Simmons will be given a look in spring training for a relief role and may, if healthy, have some upside as a setup man or more. The Braves acquisitions are both slated for the minors while Mallex Smith and Ryan Yarbrough should see some MLB action, but neither appears to be opening day roster candidates. Colby Rasmus, Kevin Kiermaier, and Steven Souza man the Rays’ outfield with Corey Dickerson at DH, plus they’re likely to also carry Mikie Mahtook and Nick Franklin on the roster. Yarbrough also faces an uphill climb with a number of pitchers with either more experience or greater upside likely to appear on the AAA roster. Carlos Vargas, meanwhile, will likely only play in short-season level ball.

Player Analysis: 2016 was the first season Smyly made 30 starts in a season. He has also yet to throw more than 175 innings in a single year. All this came last season and was after throwing fewer than 100 innings in the previous season. So, right off the bat, Smyly considering his injury history and usage history is someone who has to be handled carefully and that a fifth starter’s role, regardless of his skill level compared to pitchers such as Yovani Gallardo, may be a good idea. A fly-ball pitcher who regularly posts fairly high HR/FB and HR/9 numbers, Smyly may not benefit as much as one might think at first glass from to Safeco as Tropicana Field has been somewhat comparable in terms of home runs regardless of handedness. Smyly does to his credit still have above average command and can still miss bats high rates, but as long as the long ball issue remains it is hard to see him as a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher.

Shae Simmons has taken a long while to work his way back from Tommy John surgery. He remains a hard thrower averaging over 95 mph on his fastball. He generates plenty of groundballs and has a slider that flashes plus at times, but struggles to consistently command either of his pitches. Simmons is a reliever with a wide range of outcomes from possible closer to Triple-A roster filler but should get a few opportunities this season to showcase his stuff.

Mallex Smith is a bit buried on the Rays depth charts at the moment, but at a minimum because of his speed and defensive skills should receive a cup of coffee or two in the Majors. At best, he could challenge for the starting left field job. Smith’s main draw is his speed which is well above average and his minor league career shows a history of someone who is willing to both draw walks and who tries to play within his game as a more contact-oriented hitter fully aware of his limited power potential as clearly seen in his 60% groundball rates at the MLB Level. Smith, 23, has yet to translate the walk rates from the lower minors to even Triple-A and did not show his contact-making skills during his MLB stint with the Braves. There is .280+/40+ stolen base potential here, but he’ll have to improve his contact, show a better batting eye, and make major improvements against left-handers after hitting .080 against them in a small sample (50 at-bats) with the Braves.

Ryan Yarbrough, a former fourth-round pick, is a 25-year old left-hander known for his good command and ability to induce groundballs at high rates. He’s a pitch to contact type likely to end up a back-end of the rotation inning eater or long man out of the bullpen.

Carlos Vargas will turn 18 less than a month before opening day. He is currently listed as a shortstop and will remain there for now. In time though he may move to the hot corner or an outfield spot given his plus arm. Vargas handled rookie ball quite well showing an advanced feel for the strike zone, a quick, contact-making bat, and already emerging power. There is some reason for excitement here but on the other hand, at his age, it is difficult to justify drafting him except in keeper/dynasty leagues with deep minor league rosters.

Luiz Gohara, 20, was one of the better young arms in the Mariner’s system. A left-hander, Gohara is regularly in the mid to upper nineties fastball and compliments that plus pitch with a plus slider, striking out well more than a batter an inning. He topped off his season by impressing in the hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League, striking out over 14 batters per nine innings as one of the youngest players in a prospect-heavy league. He should move up to full season A+ ball this year.

Thomas Burrows, a college closer and a 2016 4th round pick, has the potential to move quickly through the Rays’ system. However, he does not project to his college role in the majors, lacking a power pitch or a dominating strikeout pitch for that matter, but does at least have more than enough to be more than a situational lefty.

Final Thoughts: The overall impact of this trade for fantasy leaguers may not be all that great, at least in 2017. Gohara would have first appeared on dynasty/keeper league radar this season, but AL-only players now lose that opportunity. Smyly’s value is not hinged to his team so much as it is linked to his health and gopheritis. Vargas is worthy of consideration, as mentioned, for dynasty leaguers. Simmons and especially Smith have sleeper potential and are both worth keeping eyes upon in the near and far future. Smith’s proximity to the majors and stolen base potential alone make him a prime target in late rounds/minor league drafts in AL-only leagues. The fact that it is Colby Rasmus and other journeymen ahead of him on the depth charts makes taking a flier on him all the more reasonable.