What’s a Joey Rickard?

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Joey Rickard was on virtually no one’s radar heading into spring training. A quick scan of just about every prominent prospect publication on the market not only doesn’t list the former Devil Ray amongst the top prospects but do not even mention him on any lists or are any prospect depth charts. Still, the Orioles selected him in this past off-season’s Rule-5 draft as a potential back-up, a role that seemed to be consistent with his ceiling at the time. The former ninth-round pick certainly has some attractive skills, particularly for that role, as a solid defender at all three outfield positions.  Offensively, Rickard enjoys having plus speed and is coming off of a twenty-four stolen base season amongst three different levels of minor league play. The righty also possesses a fundamentally sound approach at the plate, walking more often than he struck out between A+ and AA ball last season. That approach fell somewhat apart as he made contact just 81% of the time in 104 Triple-A plate appearances while watching his walk rate slip to under 10%. Tools-wise, Rickard’s most significant shortcoming in his game is a lack of power. He managed just two home runs last year and has hit no more than eight in any previous single minor league season. Fortunately, Rickard has at least shown modest gap power, hitting doubles and triples at solid rates in the minors.

As of this writing, it appears Rickard has forced the Orioles hand and will open 2016 as their starting left fielder and will likely force them to rework Korean import, Hyun-Soo Kim’s contract to the point of either requesting he go to the minors or have his contract voided altogether (with compensation of course).

As fantasy players, with stolen bases in such high demand, it forces our hand too. In order to obtain him, if you’ve already drafted that is, AL-only leaguers will have to commit a fairly significant amount of FAAB in order to claim him. Such a bid comes with substantial risk. Rickard is clearly no sure thing to stick particularly once scouting reports on him circulate about the league.

This is still the same player who managed a .243/.337/.296 line in AA as recently as 2014 and has also, at times, showed signs of having difficulties against right-handed pitching. Rickard may end up starting for much of 2016 but he still probably profiles as a fourth or fifth outfielder beyond this year.

So often we see the next great speedster all set to make his debut only to be overpowered by major league pitchers. Much of it can be tied to a lack of translation of their contact skills and/or overall plate discipline fail to the Majors. Rickard is in that same boat and the odds are stacked against him. I wish him luck but remain skeptical for now.

A Word About Jesus Montero

If Montero could catch, we wouldn’t be talking about him being put on waivers, claimed on waivers, and then the Blue Jays most likely trying to slip him through waivers to get to the minors. Instead, we’d be probably be analyzing the righty from the standpoint of a player entering his fifth season as a full-time player. That is a testament to his bat in that our expectations of production from catchers are far more forgiving and when compared to other current backstops, he fits in nicely and would be more coveted than quite a few.

Coming up through the minors Montero’s raw power and original position created quite a bit of hype. As a right-handed hitter with his power potential who did not strikeout overly much and who walked a fairly average amount, it looked like Montero had a bat that would not only stick, but that should translate fairly quickly to the Majors. Unfortunately, Montero did not advance defensively as planned and became one of a plethora of right-handed first basemen/designated hitter types. Still, the Yankees extracted Michael Pineda from the Mariners from him and the Mariners indeed gave him a shot.

Looking back at 2012, while Montero certainly did not dominate, for a 22-year old playing full time in the majors he did actually translate most of his minor league skills fairly well when considering most players his age were still in AAA, batting .260/.290/.386 with fifteen homers isn’t all that terrible. Again, were he a catcher of any skill, it might have been heralded as quite a success to not only handle a major league staff but to show some offensive potential. Regardless of position, 2012 looked like something Montero could build off. Instead, he struggled early in 2013 and ended up spending a lot of time out of action. By 2014 he was already out of the Mariner’s plans. While Montero has yet to fulfill his promise and has not dominated at any minor league level, he is still coming off of two solid AAA seasons. At 26 the move to journeyman AAA roster filler has probably begun in earnest. There is a chance he could push his way into a platoon at first base depending upon the volatility of Chris Colabello, but it’s likely the Jays are not the best fit for him and that Toronto could end up being one of a few pit-stops in 2016.

2016 AL Tout Wars Recap

Expert League, Tout Wars

This past weekend I enjoyed my annual tradition of participating in two AL-only auctions in two days in NY, NY. While I may love my local league, if you’ve surfed over here, you’ve come to hear more about my AL Tout Wars team. This was my sixteenth Tout Wars draft, my sixth in the American League after 10 years in the National League.

AL Tout Wars
AL Tout Wars – The Fish Bowl

For the full results, you can go here: http://tinyurl.com/j6xst2p.

Pre-Draft: My pre-draft focus was on full-time at-bats. In particular, I targeted at bats those from players with well-established baselines with the idea that I would probably spend between 75% and 80% of my budget on hitting. my pitching would involve purchasing an anchor starter and an established closer closer and filling in my staff around that. I also decided that I’d prefer not to go above $29 for any single player and spread the risk a bit.

So how’d that go, Rob? Well, I spent 67% on hitting and ended up with a pretty traditional team. I am not sure if I recall a Tout draft where there was this aggressive, some might call unrestrained, bidding on hitting.  So, I changed things up as I often do mid-draft, readjusting my individual roster slot goals on the fly on my spreadsheet.  To be honest, this was nudged a bit when I nominated Shawn Tolleson at a price of $14 and received crickets. I’m perfectly fine with this price considering I had him valued a few dollars higher, but with Chad Allen already rostered at $20, this forced my hand away from my pre-draft budget targets.

The Players: Catchers: James McCann ($8) and Kurt Suzuki ($2) – The catching market being slim, I decided to go with two who at least would not hurt me.

First Base: Albert Pujols ($19) – Despite being in the decline phase of his career, Pujols is still durable and coming off of a 40 home run campaign. I purchased him at that price with the idea that he provide at least 25 home runs and that his batting average on balls in play wouldshift back towards his career norms and provide a slightly better OBP.

Second Base: Brian Dozier ($24) – While I can’t expect much more than .315 to .320 OBP, I drafted him for legitimate mid-twenties home run power. His speed skills indicate that his decline in stolen bases was more the result of a decline in opportunities rather than the decline of his raw speed.  Maintaining double-digit steals should at least not be an issue and a return to a slightly higher level might even be reasonable.

Third Base: Kyle Seager ($22) – If you are looking for consistent, boring production from a player amidst his peak, Seager is a clear target. I was pleased to get both Dozier and Seager right at about at value.

Shortstop: Andrelton Simmons ($5) – Not much upside here unless he reverses the ground-ball trend, but his glove ensures consistent at-bats.

Corner: A.J. Reed ($3) – I like to take at least one risk of this nature each time in Tout. He’ll start the year in AAA and could push his way into a starting job by mid-season, depending on the success of others on the depth charts. Given his skill set, I believe he’ll exceed the value drafted, provided the Astros give him the opportunity. Needless to say, finding a back-up for him in the reserve round quickly became my top priority there.

Middle Infield: Chris Coghlan ($5) – I had Coghlan as one of my pre-draft targets. Tout Wars rules allow for 15 games to be the minimum position qualifier rather than the standard twenty, so his power/speed/OBP combination along with his aforementioned versatility and the A’s intent to get him in the lineup regularly, I’m hoping this is a solid bargain.

Outfielders: Nelson Cruz ($26), Kevin Pillar ($18), Melky Cabrera ($12), Carlos Beltran ($12), Seth Smith ($5)

I admit to going slightly overboard on Cruz and Pillar, though I still believe in both players’ ability to produce this season. Cruz’s salary may have been better spent on a speed source or someone with a broader base of skills. The Pillar purchase came as a direct result of me chasing for speed when he was one of the few remaining starters with that talent. The Jays will be using him as a leadoff hitter which in theory could push him towards 30 steals this season, but it remains to be seen how long they’ll keep him there considering his tendency towards poor walk rates. His combination of gap power, speed, and contact skills, at least, gives hope that he is capable of at least repeating last year’s output. The days of Beltran and Cabrera supplying much in the way of stolen bases is long gone, but both again fit my fairly low-risk, get at-bats strategy at reasonable purchase prices as did Seth Smith and Victor Martinez.

In review, this is a roster full of players I am hoping will have one last hurrah. Pujols, Beltran, Martinez, and Cruz are all near the end of their respective careers but continue to display competitive skills. This team will sink or swim depending on whether or not these players decide to show their age.

Starters: Felix Hernandez ($22), Masahiro Tanaka ($17), Andrew Heaney ($3), Chris Bassitt ($3), Anibal Sanchez ($1), Eduardo Rodriguez ($2), Derek Holland ($2)

When targeting my anchor, I did not have Felix Hernandez in mind, having him valued perhaps a bit higher than I intended to spend. I was pleasantly surprised to have him at $22. Yes, the thirty-year-old showed some signs of decline with a drop off to an  8.5 K/9, his highest walk rate since 2011, and his highest ERA since 2008. The right-hander stilll has an otherwise strong skill set going forward and there is hope for improvement given the anomaly that was his home run rate on fly balls from last season. I saved some of my risk for the pitching side, obtaining upside pitchers like Heaney and Rodriguez for a combined $5. Their health and emergence as rotation members will be critical components of my team, but on the same token at just $5 they are both easy to move on from if they fail instead.

Relievers: Cody Allen ($20), Shawn Tolleson ($14) – It is possible I could lead the league in saves this year,. It is, however, more likely that I’ll try to get off to an early lead here and then trade one of the two for other needs, content to tread water in the saves category thereafter.

Bench: Travis Shaw, Aaron Judge, Richie Shaffer, Joakim Soria
Shaw and Judge are both insurance policies. Shaw will go into my lineup immediately to replace A.J. Reed. Should he somehow beat Pablo Sandoval out for the Red Sox’s third base job that will be gravy. He still looks likely to eclipse 300 plate appearances as a super-sub. Judge will be 2016 in AAA and his power bat could push his way into the Yankee’s lineup later this season. In theory, he offers additional trade leverage, plugging his power into my lineup while allowing for me to trade a veteran power bat for another need. Shaffer offers similar potential to Shaw, but perhaps less opportunity at the moment. Soria will go immediately into my active roster to replace an injured Rodriguez or Sanchez.

Kiss of Death?
So the rosters have just been entered into our stats service at onroto.com which has a “toy box” feature that includes two separate projection systems that project the final standings. Apparently these systems like what I did, positioning me at either first or second place.  Is this a kiss of death or are my chances this good? My sense is it’s a bit of both. My team is so veteran-hitting deep, that most projection systems are comfortable regressing and/or hedging projections for these players to a certain level without expecting failure. We’ll find out if they and my own assessments were correct. What do you think?

Desmond to Texas

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So free agents to be coming off a sub-par season now have a lesson object in Ian Desmond. If you receive a qualifying offer, take it. Teams won’t want to pay a premium for a player plus lose a pick on a player with question marks. The result, as we already know, is Desmond’s less than qualifying offer signing by the Texas Rangers.

Contracts aside, Ian Desmond’s season really was not radically different from his 2014 campaign. What may have looked like an outlier in the strikeout department after 2014 may now be Desmond’s baseline with him having gone from a low-twenty-percent strikeout player to one who is now approaching the 30% mark. Obviously maintain that high a strikeout rate places a lower ceiling on his batting average and on-base percentage. A .250/.315 level is that ceiling barring a shift back towards his pre-2014 performance levels`.

Another disturbing trend with Desmond’s game has been a three-year jump in groundballs by precisely 10% from 2013 to over 50% of the time each of the past two seasons. His fly ball rates have trended downwards the past four years though to be fair, have always ranged in the low to mid-30% range. The move to Arlington may be one contributing factor that arrests any further erosion of his home run totals, but it is not guaranteed.

Desmond also witnessed a drop-off in stolen bases and his overall speed scores to the lowest of his career. A return to the 20-plus stolen base level on the wrong side of thirty is far from a given.

Demond did enjoy a much better second half than the first half but actually did so while increasing his ground ball rates despite posting huge home run on fly ball numbers in the months of July and August while actually striking out more frequently than he had earlier in the season.

The righty will, as a result of having signed with a club with a deep infield, have to man a new position in left field. Ostensibly he’ll also receive some playing time at shortstop and perhaps even second base on days off or should injuries occur, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll get enough playing time to continue to qualify as a middle infielder past 2016. Things will also get further complicated once Josh Hamilton returns from the disabled list around the first of May. Hamilton was originally slated to be the everyday left fielder but now will have to compete with not only Desmond, but Mitch Moreland, and Prince Fielder for playing time as well. It remains to be seen who will be the playing time loser in that equation.

This all said, Ian Desmond still should be worth a double digit bid in AL-only leagues on draft day. He is still a player with 15-15 homerun and stolen base tools, if not 20-20 tools who will qualify at shortstop for at least this coming season. Just be wary that there may be some definite high and low points over that time.

The Stove Stays Hot, Even in Spring Time

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It seems a bit late for the hot stove league to still be in full force what with pitchers and catchers having already reported, but the Cubs, A’s, Orioles, have gifted us with some transactions worthy of discussion!

The Gallardo Signing
Yovanni Gallardo’s signing by the Orioles comes as no surprise since it has been rumored for more than a week now. The soon to be thirty-year-old essentially replaces Wei-Yin Chen who signed a five-year deal with the Marlins earlier this off-season. Gallardo will slot in as the Orioles’ number two starter behind Ubaldo Jimenez.

If nothing else, Gallardo has been durable, averaging thirty-two starts a season and one hundred ninety-one innings over the past seven seasons. Well, unfortunately for the Orioles, it may not be much more than that given some disturbing trends. The righty’s strikeout rate has dropped each of the past four seasons to an alarmingly low 5.9 K/9 with the Rangers coupled with posting a career low average velocity of 90.4 mph on his fastball. This becomes even more troubling when one considers 2015 was one of his best seasons in terms of disallowing home runs despite no real change in skill set and rather what appears to be an out of career context, home run on fly ball rate of just under 9%.

Concerns over the condition of Gallardo’s shoulder resulted in a restructuring of his original deal from three years to two years with a team option, though a point in his favor, were not strong enough to take the deal off the table entirely as happened to other potential Oriole signees in the past.

At thirty years of age, there is still a chance for a rebound, but the trends are not in his favor and an ERA of well over 4.00 may well be in the cards for 2016. I could not recommend a bid exceeding a $1 or, in the end-game of AL-only leagues.

Fowler Returns
In a much greater surprise today, Dexter Fowler returned to the Chicago Cubs when it was all but certain that such a reunion would not occur. The move of Chris Coghlan, which I’ll get to in a bit, to Oakland clears up a roster spot for him but makes playing time for Jorge Soler and Kyle Schwarber a bit murky. The most simple solution may be a platoon scenario whereby Fowler and Soler share left field duties with perhaps Soler also coming in the latter innings for defensive purposes. On the other hand, further wheeling and dealing, whether in the preseason or amidst season may be a foot.

Getting to Fowler, the move saves the Cubs from having to watch the adventure that would have been Jason Heyward manning centerfield every day. For fantasy players, Fowler has a fairly stable skill set, having always been a disciplined hitter who will once again on most days be the Cubs’ leadoff hitter. While no blazer, the opportunity to bat leadoff and his OBP skills should, in theory, continue to get him enough opportunities to once again approach or twenty stolen bases. His lack of success against righties, however, continued last season with a .228/.331/.395 line, so despite batting leadoff on the days he is in the lineup, the Cubs may be more inclined to mix and match on days they face tougher right-handers. It remains to be seen, therefore, whether he will be able to match his career high in plate appearances ever again.

Fowler’s power production has been up and down over the years, but in his favor is a four-year trend of increasing fly ball rates. His home run on fly ball rate, however, was not his career best and his career high in homers is more likely the result of extended playing time, rather than the development of new skill.

Heading into 2016, expect more of the same – a .250s to .270s hitter with 15/15-plus potential. He remains a more favorable target for OBP and sim leagues.

Deal of the Day
The lone trade of the day was perhaps the least headline creating in terms of name value. Chris Coghlan Aaron Brooks. For both teams involved, the deal improves their depth in areas of greater need.

Brooks, a former ninth round pick of the Royals, will more than likely begin 2016 in the Cubs’ Triple-A rotation, but will likely see action in spot start duty. His best path to an extended MLB look will be due to injury. Brooks does a good job of pounding the strike zone with walk rates right around the 2.0 mark. While he commands what he has well, at the MLB level he is more of a soft-tossing, pitch to contact pitcher who relies on a plus changeup to get outs. His tendency to be in the strike zone, however, also tends to leave him open to the long ball. A move from a pitcher friendly park to Wrigley may not be suited to his style of pitching either.

Chris Coghlan will mainly be a bench player for the A’s, but given his defensive versatility and his left-handed bat, should find his way into a good amount of at-bats as a part-time DH, occasional outfielder spelling Khris Davis, and may even see action at third base or second base depending on the effectiveness of Danny Valencia and the ability to stay healthy of Jed Lowrie.

2015 saw Coghlan receive the most playing time of his career since his rookie season back in 2009. Despite an up and own career, the lefty remains a patient, line-drive hitter, who makes a fair amount of contact, has slightly above average speed, and power that that has been trending upwards both in terms of a number of fly balls hit as well as fly balls converted into home runs.

While not written in stone, especially given the path of Coghlan’s career, it is well within the realm of possibilities that he could eclipse his 2015 playing time totals as a result of the change in scenery.