Tag Archives: white sox

Veteran Pitchers

With all the controversy that is currently going on in baseball, players are trying to put things behind them as they prepare for the upcoming season. Two such players have been notable in this effort this past week and are former rotation-mates who have moved on from the Houston Astros two different organizations. I’m talking of course about Mike Fiers and Dallas Keuchel.

Dallas Keuchel after struggling to find employment for much of the first half of 2019, Keuchel landed in Atlanta and pitched well enough to secure a three-year contract with the White Sox. The 32-year has a good history of performing to his skills, in other words, there has not been a high degree of variance between his ERA and that which was expected, his xFIP in this case. That said, it says nothing of his skills or their recent trends, it just says in world full of pitchers with a wide variance of predictability, he has been one of the safer bets to get what you expected from him.

First and foremost, Keuchel remains a groundball machine, keeping an impressive 60% of his balls in play in 2019. This was to his benefit last year, pitching in front of one of the better team-defenses in baseball and should lead to some skepticism for 2020 as he moves to Chicago where the White Sox featured one of baseball’s poorest. Then keep in mind that this is a pitcher who has had a HR/FB rate in excess of 20% in his past two of three seasons and no less than 11% since 2014 and factor in, well park factors, Keuchel is now moving from a pitcher neutral/friendly park to one of the more homerun friendly parks may also not be in his favor. An ERA slide to the mid-4’s range is likely and a bid under $10 and closer to $5 is probably in your best interest.

For two successive seasons, Mike Fiers has defied the regression gods, posting sub 4.00 ERAs despite a steep decline in his ability to get generate strikeouts, continued high home rates, suppressed batting average on balls in play, and high left-on-base percentages. Pitching in Oakland has FIP his saving grace, showing improved ability in keeping the ball in the park there, but still producing FIP and xFIPs that are in the high 4’s to low 5’s. Fiers has managed to earn $10 or more dollars three years running but is always one step away from that flipping on its head and earning in the negative. As a result, he’ll cost less (and should!) than the amount he has earned and really should be considered more of an endgame, sub $5 play with the hope he has another season like this left in him. Even then, bench him weeks he is away if you can.

Prospect Profile: Jacob May

The White Sox, pushing towards rebuilding mode, did not aggressively pursue veterans to add to their outfield, instead focusing on minor league invitees and their system’s own depth. Early on, Charlie Tilson was considered one of the front-runners as a rookie candidate to grab a starting job but has been slowed by injuries. In his stead, Jacob May has pushed forward to claim the starting centerfield job, but can he hold onto it and just who is this guy?

May, 25, was a 2013 third round pick out of Coastal Carolina, so not a completely unheralded prospect in this case. He’s a smallish (5’10”) switch-hitter whose standout tools is speed gathering 37 stolen bases in 2014, 38 in 2015, and 19 over his 321 plate appearances in Triple-A in 2016. It should be noted, however, that May is not necessarily a high-percentage stealer with a 69% and 70% success rates respectively over those two seasons. It remains to be seen whether or not he’ll be given the green light and whether or not make the necessary improvements to keep it.

At the plate, May leaves quite a bit to be desired as a potential starter. He has marginal power with a sub .100 isolated power in the upper levels of the minors, and lacks in the plate discipline department, striking out far too often (22% in 2016 in AAA) and fails to get on base (4.7% walk rate). He fared slightly better in the latter two departments in his 2015 Double-A stint but has yet to show that at a higher level of competition.

In summary, May speed tools certainly make him a must-grab in AL-only formats, but he strikes me as someone whose modest skills and talents will be overexposed during a prolonged stay. Long term I see him as a fourth/fifth/Triple-A roster filler outfielder. Extract what value you can from him while he gets some plate appearances.